The Sports Corner

2008 Big 10 Football preview

1. Ohio State

The Guy: Quarterbacks Todd Boeckman and Terrelle Pryor. 

Boeckman is 24-years old while Pryror is just a bright eyed freshman. Both have rare size for a quarterback but Pryor’s athletic ability sets him apart. How Jim Tressel uses the young man’s talents in a reserve role will be the X-factor for the Buckeyes this season. Boeckman is the undoubted starter. He needs to cut down on his interceptions, however. With Pryor in the game-plan there will be less pressure on Boeckman to make plays and he shouldn’t make as many mistakes. 

The Schedule: There are a handful of road games that are cause for concern, but OSU is certainly a cut above the rest in the Big 10. They get two cupcakes in Youngstown State and Ohio before the USC game, that will determine whether or not the Buckeyes return to the national championship game. The other road games that could be slip ups for OSU are sprinkled throughout the year. At Wisconsin and Michigan State in October, then off to Illinois, who nearly spoiled the party last year, in November. Even though Michigan will be down this year that’s not a game OSU can afford to overlook. The Wolverines still have talent. 

The Reality: It all boils down to the USC game, but inevitably, this team will get tripped up along the way. Whether or not it happens in Los Angeles. A trip to the Rose Bowl and an 11-win season are lead-pipe locks. The passing game is in good hands with two capable quarterbacks and a pair of play-makers in receivers Brian Hartline and Robiskie. Only one starter has to be replaced on the offensive line that paved the way for Chris Wells’ 1,667 rushing yards as as sophomore. With depth behind him in the form of speedsters Brandon Saine and Maurice Wells, “Beanie” will get to rest when he needs it. Defensively they may field the best team in the country. Linebackers James Laurinatis and Marcus Freeman will be all-Americans. Corner Malcolm Jenkins might be the first defensive back taken in the next NFL draft. No team in the Big 10 can come close to matching the talent level at OSU.

The Future: After signing Pryor, the Buckeyes set themselves up for another three years among the best in the nation. Pryor’s skills are earth shattering. There will be plenty of talent around him for Tressel to mold into national title contenders. All Tressel does is win but with the spread offense inserted in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines will present a new challenge. 

2. Wisconsin

The Guy: Linebackers Jonathan Casillas, Elijah Hodge and DeAndre Levy. 

These three struggled last year behind a patchwork defensive line that wasn’t stout enough. If the line can stay healthy, seniors Casillas, Levy and Hodge, a junior, will be able to use their speed to make plays sideline to sideline. Weak-side backer Casillas is one of the fastest linebackers in the league. The influx of spread offenses and athletic quarterbacks into the league has put his speed at a premium. The secondary, as well as the line, will have to improve to give this unit a chance to make an impact. 

The Schedule: Starting September 27, the Badgers will play six meaningful games in a row. They go to Michigan, host Ohio State and Penn State, travel to Iowa, play their homecoming game versus Illinois and go on the road to face Michigan State. Other than an early season trip to play Fresno State in California, the rest of the schedule will be easily navigated, but that seven game stretch in Big 10 play may be too much to handle. 

The Reality: Head coach Bret Bielema has done a great job picking up where Barry Alvarez left off. With a massive offensive line that returns four starters, it’s not likely to matter who plays QB for the Badgers, they’re going to play smash-mouth football with two talented runners in PJ Hill and John Clay. Change of pace back Lance Smith has decided to transfer. Outside of tight end Travis Beckum though, the team doesn’t have a threat in the passing game. Getting through the Big 10 with just one loss will be a success. Two losses and a new year’s day bowl are a good possibility. 

The Future: Bret Bielema looks like a great long term replacement for Barry Alvarez but things can change so fast in college football. If he doesn’t continue to recruit well, they will be overtaken. 

3. Penn State

The Guy: Wide receiver Derrick Williams. 

Williams came to State College as one of the most highly touted recruits in recent memory. Unfortunately, due to some errors on the part of the coaching staff early in his career and some fault of his own, he has yet to show what all that hype was about. Williams has one more chance and it’s not like every defense is preparing solely for him, receivers Jordan Norwood and Deon Butler are both excellent players in their own right. The quarterback situation will be one to watch this season as the athletic Daryll Clark tries to hold off strong armed sophomore Pat Devlin. Both will be able to win games but if Williams is able to show is game-changing ability, the Nittany Lions will be in position to play for the Big 10 crown. 

The Schedule: Just like Wisconsin, it’s a six-game stretch starting September 27 that will determine their season and only two of those games are at home, against Illinois and Michigan. There are back to back road games twice where they travel to Purdue and Wisconsin before homecoming, then there’s a two game road swing against Ohio State and Iowa separated by an off-week. 

The Reality: They’ve got enough talent to finish in the top three but with four tough road games it might not be possible. The loss of linebacker Sean Lee for the season and Justin King to the NFL doesn’t help at all. The defense may struggle to live up to it’s predecessors. Corner AJ Wallace will have to shut down one side of the field entirely. Running backs Evan Royster and Stephfon Green need to give the Lions some semblance of a running attack to remain balanced. There is no room for mistakes on this football team. A nine- or even 10-win season could be in the cards, if they play them right. 

The Future: Pat Devlin will hold the reigns to the offense in 2009 and 2010. He’s got great size and a rocket arm, just like Anthony Morelli, who was also a highly touted recruit. Devlin will have to fare better than Morelli did if the Lions are going anywhere in the final few years of Joe Paterno’s regime. Paterno needs to give the school a timetable for his departure and set up a successor. He’s holding the team back so far as recruiting goes. They only brought in 14 new players this year, partly because of Paterno’s poor health and they lost out on in-state star recruit Tyrelle Pryor. 

4. Illinois

The Guy: Wide receiver Arrelious Benn. 

Benn came to Illinois with star power and didn’t disappoint as a freshman. He led the team with 54 receptions and 676 yards but he will need to improve on those numbers if this team is going to repeat its nine-win season from last year. Senior WR to-be Kyle Hudson has left the team to focus on baseball leaving the onus squarely on Benn. Only two other players that caught more than 10 passes return. The development of Isaiah “Juice” Williams will also be crucial to this team. Benn can’t throw passes to himself, after all. 

The Schedule: Opening the season against Missouri should show us where this team stands. A close game will mean they can contend in the Big 10, but if they get blown out, it could be a rough season. There are three difficult road games (Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin) and a home date with Ohio State in November. They might only be favored in one of those games. 

The Reality: Defensively the only real bright spots are the return of corners Dere Hicks and Vontae Davis, as well as 2nd team All-Big 10 defensive end Will Davis. That should make the Illini a great pass defense but against teams like Wisconsin and Ohio State they may have a hard time defending the run. Many expected defensive tackle D’Angelo McCray to play a big role as a freshman but he decided to transfer. If this team can’t stop the run it won’t matter how good the Juice Williams - Arrelious Benn combination becomes. Daniel Dufrene has some big shoes to fill with the departure of running back Rashard Mendenhall to the NFL. The Illini might not be capable of any more than seven- or eight-wins this season, the schedule doesn’t allow for it. 

The Future: Head coach Ron Zook has recruited extremely well. Getting someone like D’Angelo McCray on campus though has to be his next priority. His next recruiting class will be an important one, so he can bridge the gap from this team to the next.

5. Michigan

The Guy: Whoever plays quarterback. 

Nick Sheridan and Steven Threet have the weight of the Big House on their shoulders. The two young quarterbacks are in a dead heat for the starting position. Unfortunately, neither player is a perfect fit for the spread offense. Threet is just a freshman and he might be the more talented of the two. Neither player, however, is a great runner, something new head coach Rich Rodriguez always had at quarterback while coaching West Virginia. There is plenty of talent surrounding whoever wins the job though. Carlos Brown and Brandon Minor, both juniors, are good runners and figure to be the focus of the offense. Wide receiver Greg Mathews has yet to be the go-to-guy at Michigan but he has the ability to be that guy and both quarterbacks will look to him when they need a first down. 

The Schedule: Utah and Notre Dame won’t be pushovers in the non-conference schedule. There will be three key games at the Big House as Wisconsin and Illinois visit in consecutive weeks. The home game versus Michigan State will be a make or break game for both teams. 

The Reality: Rodriguez need time to implement his system, both offensively and defensively. As well as the move to the spread offense, in time the UM defense will move from a 4-3 base to a 3-3-5 stack. Neither will be an overnight procedure. The personnel isn’t in place to run either system just yet. They will lean on the defense this year as all four starters on the line return, including 2nd team All-Big 10 pick Terrance Taylor, the 320 pound nose guard. The pass rush should be tenacious and with two talented corners in Morgan Trent and Donovan Warren, moving the ball against Michigan won’t be easy. There will be a lot of close games it’s optimistic to think this team can win eight games. Seven is realistic.

The Future: Once Rodriguez gets his quarterback the offense will become a well oiled machine. Just look at Pat White running the show at West Virginia. Coming out of high school in Alabama, Rodriguez was one of the few coaches to recruit White as a quarterback. Most saw him at one of the skill positions. If Rodriguez can find his diamond in the rough in this upcoming recruiting class Michigan will be back to being Michigan… with a slight change in philosophy. 

6. Michigan State

The Guy: Head coach Mark Dantonio. 

People talk about new coaches changing the culture when they walk into a new job. That’s exactly what Dantonio has done. Dantonio has been an assistant under Nick Saban and Jim Tressel so it’s fitting that he preaches discipline, something MSU was sorely lacking under previous coach John L. Smith. Quickly the Spartans have changed fortunes and become an overachieving team as opposed to a talented bunch of underachievers. 

The Schedule: The opener in Berkeley against Cal will set the tone for the rest of the season. Cal is a good Pac-10 team but they can be beaten. Notre Dame makes a trip to East Lansing in September and if MSU can escape from non-conference play undefeated, this is going to be a big season. Ohio State and Wisconsin come to Spartan Stadium while the only tough road games are at Michigan and Penn State. 

The Reality: MSU could surprise a few teams this year. Quarterback Brian Hoyer is one of the league’s best and though he lost WR Devin Thomas to the NFL, there are two capable receivers on hand in Mark Dell and Deon Curry. Running back Javon Ringer is also a good receiver out of the backfield. If left tackle Rocco Cironi can protect the blind side, Hoyer will have a big season. Defensively the key to this team is at linebacker with sophomores Greg Jones and Eric Gordon. Last year’s defensive line was much more talented though, leaving Jones and Gordon to fend for themselves against the run this season. There’s good size and experience at cornerback with Chris Rucker, Ross Weaver, and Kendell Davis-Clark. Depending on how they come out of the non-conference schedule, MSU could be looking at eight wins this year if they pull an upset but seven wins should be all they can muster.

The Future: Oklahoma transfer Keith Nichol will take over at quarterback next year. There won’t be much depth behind him so his health will be the key for this team. Nichol was one of the top quarterback recruits in the country two years ago and was set to play for Michigan State before John L. Smith was fired. 

7. Iowa

The Guy: The offensive line. 

He hasn’t shown it yet, but Jake Christensen has the talent to be one of the best quarterbacks in Iowa’s history. Last season he was sacked 46 times. If he’s going to take this team anywhere the offensive line has to keep him from taking a beating like that. This year all five starters return including two honorable mention All-Big 10 picks. All five players - Bryan Bulaga, Kyle Calloway, Dan Doering, Seth Olsen and Rafael Eubanks - were highly recruited out of high school. That should help the lack of play-makers at running back, with junior college transfer Nate Guillory deciding to quit the team. Junior Shonn Greene will make the start at RB. An extension of the o-line, senior tight end Tony Moeaki has the potential to be a big time target for Christensen. 

The Schedule: They get three warm ups against non-conference foes before travelling to Pittsburgh in what should be a sure loss. Once they get into conference play the schedule is even easier. Iowa won’t have to play Ohio State or Michigan this year because of the Big 10’s rotating schedule. Northwestern, Indiana, Purdue and Minnesota are all on the schedule 

The Reality: Since the schedule is a cupcake haven, Iowa can win seven games this year. They don’t have the talent to do that in a regular year, especially defensively where they only return five starers. The front seven will be formidable but teams should have their way with Iowa through the air. 

The Future: It looked so bright for head coach Kirk Ferentz when the team won 10 games for the third consecutive season in 2004 but since then the haven’t done any better than seven in a season. Maybe Ferentz should have jumped at the chance to coach in the NFL when he had it. 

8. Indiana

The Guy: Quarterback Kellen Lewis.

Plain and simple, he does everything for this team. Last year he led the Hoosiers in passing with over 3,000 yards and 28 TD’s to only 10 interceptions while rushing for a team best 736 yards and another nine TD’s. The offensive line will be inexperienced this year and he will be forced to make quicker decisions and run more often. Big play receiver James Hardy was lost to the NFL making junior wide receivers Andrew Means and Ray Fisher the best the team has. Neither has the size Hardy had and combined they scored 4 TD’s (all by Fisher) compared to Hardy’s 16. Means and Fisher were reliable targets for Lewis last season but they will have to be better than that in 2008 if Indiana is going bowling again. 

The Schedule: Opening with Western Kentucky, Murray State and Ball State before the conference season begins should ease the team into the schedule that isn’t very hard. Neither Michigan nor Ohio State is on the schedule and there are only four road games. 

The Reality: There’s a glimmer of hope for another bowl game. Seven games is definitely attainable thanks to the weak schedule but the defense will need to play much better than last year when it only held one opponent (div. 1-AA Indiana State) to under 20 points. Junior defensive end Greg Middleton is back after leading the nation in sacks with 16 but he’s been suspended for the first game of the year. 

The Future: If they get to a bowl game this year, it will be the first time they’ve been to bowls in consecutive years since ‘90-’91. Winning a bowl game this year would also be a first since ‘91. But there might not be good times ahead for this program, especially if Middleton jumps to the NFL after this season. He’s the only NFL caliber player on that side of the ball. 

9. Northwestern

The Guy: Running back Tyrell Sutton. 

It seems like Tyrell Sutton has been in college forever. He’s been the starter at Northwestern since his freshman year and has gained nearly 3,000 yards in that time. Sutton isn’t the biggest back in the league at just 5′9 but he’s adept at catching passes out of the backfield, a necessity for the Northwestern spread offense. His freshman year was the last time this team went to a bowl game and they might have the talent at the skill positions to replicate that for his senior season. 

The Schedule: The non-conference schedule isn’t hard at all but Duke won’t be a pushover this season. In conference they don’t have to play Wisconsin or Penn State. Road games against Indiana and Minnesota in consecutive weeks will decide whether or not this team gets back to the post-season. 

The Reality: The team would need a little bit of magic to get back to seven wins. The offensive line is inexperienced. Quarterback CJ Bacher has had a nice career and he’s got some weapons in senior WR’s Eric Peterman, Ross Lane and Rasheed Ward. If they can use the short passing game to offset their lack of talent along the line they might be able to sneak up on some people. Defensively they return eight starters and should be solid along the defensive line but there just isn’t a whole lot of skill there. Five or six wins will probably be the story for Northwestern, and that won’t be enough to get to a bowl. 

The Future: With Sutton and Bacher moving on, it will be a changing of the guard in Evanston. The Wildcats will slip back into the cellar of the league if a suitable replacement for Sutton isn’t found soon. 

10. Purdue

The Guy: Running back Kory Sheets. 

Sheets was supposed to split carries with Jaycen Taylor this year but a season ending ACL injury has put him on the shelf until 2009. Now Sheets must shoulder the load on the ground as well as play a huge role in the passing game because of all the receivers lost to graduation. Sheets has the ability to make plays in the passing game, he caught 30 balls last year, but it’s not known whether or not he can take on 20 carries per game in the rugged Big 10. Someone will have to step up behind him so Sheets doesn’t get worn down. Freshman quarterback Justin Siller was moved into the backfield after the injury to Taylor and might be that guy.

The Schedule: Wisconsin and Illinois don’t appear on the schedule but Oregon, Central Michigan and Notre Dame all do in the non-conference schedule and there isn’t a single off-week. 

The Reality: The Boilermakers will be lucky to break even this season, really lucky. Four wins is optimistic. If they break even in non-conference they’ll be happy. There are really only four conference games they have a chance in and two of them are on the road. The defense is lacking difference-makers at every position. Only linebacker Anthony Heygood strikes fear into his opponents, the rest of the unit is fairly lackluster. 

The Future: With head coach Joe Tiller retiring at the end of this year, when new offensive-line coach Danny Hope will take over. Hope is in deep. There won’t be much talent to work with next season and it should be another bowl-less year for the Boilermakers. 

11. Minnesota

The Guy: Everyone.

Head coach Tim Brewster brought in a talented recruiting class but there isn’t the depth or experience needed, at any position to contend in the Big 10. Sophomore QB Adam Weber and junior WR Eric Decker will put up big numbers and defensively three seniors (Willie VanDeSteeg, Steve Davis and Deon Hightower) make the front seven at least solid. 

The Schedule: The four non-conference games are the only opportunity for wins. Minnesota will host Northern Illinois, Montana State and Florida Atlantic while going on the road to Bowling Green. After that they only have a legitimate chance in one game, a home date with Indiana. 

The Reality: There probably won’t be a single conference win this season. Three wins looks like the ceiling but they could get lucky and win a fourth, or even fifth if some play-makers from the incoming freshman class are able to step on to the field and have big impacts immediately. That said, they could also crumble and fail to win a single game. 

The Future: Yes, it’s a talented recruiting class, but a number of those players are junior college transfers. They can provide a quick fix but in the long run it’s not going to help the program move up in the Big 10. 

TSC Awards:

The TMill Tough Guy Award - Mark Dantonio, Coach, Michigan State

The Cam Tucker Coverage Award - Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois

Hosea’s Biggest Hitter - DeAndre Levy, LB, Wisconsin

Scott’s Stoppers - Marcus Freeman, LB, Ohio State /  James Laurinaitis, LB, Ohio State

Big play waiting to happen - Juice Williams, QB, Illinois / Derrick William, WR, Penn State

Impact freshman - Terrelle Pryor, QB, Ohio State